Comparison of projected water availability and demand reveals future hotspots of water stress in the Red River basin, USA

被引：14

作者：

Sabzi, Hamed Zamani ^{[1
]}

Moreno, Hernan A. ^{[1
,2
]}

Fovargue, Rachel ^{[1
]}

Xue, Xianwu ^{[3
,4
]}

Hong, Yang ^{[2
]}

Neeson, Thomas M. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oklahoma, Sarkeys Energy Ctr, Dept Geog & Environm Sustainabil, Norman, OK 73019 USA

[2] Univ Oklahoma, Sch Civil Engn & Environm Sci, Norman, OK 73019 USA

[3] Syst Res Grp Inc, Colorado Springs, CO 80929 USA

[4] NOAA NWS NCEP Environm Modeling Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES | 2019年 / 26卷

关键词：

Drought; U.S. Southern Plains; Climate change impacts; Water use; Environmental conservation planning; Watershed management; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS; HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET; LAND-SURFACE FLUXES; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; CHANGE SCENARIOS; UNITED-STATES; GREAT-PLAINS; RUNOFF; PRECIPITATION; STREAMFLOW;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100638

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

Study region: Red River Basin of the South, United States of America. Study focus: We investigated the projected changes in water availability and demand across the Red River to identify regions of potential future water stress. The VIC model was calibrated, validated and then run with ensemble forcing from regionally representative global circulation model (GCM) outputs. For different combinations of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) we evaluated the impacts of climate change on streamflows and water availability throughout the basin. To estimate future water demand, we integrated a series of sector-specific regression models fit to historical water usage per county. New hydrological insights for the region: Despite discrepancies among GCMs projections, all future scenarios include a strong west-east gradient in water availability. Joint consideration of projected water demand and availability reveals that the distribution of future hotspots of water stress is spatially patchy and generally driven by changes in water demand, rather than availability. These hotspots of future water stress highlight locations of potential water conflicts. Our approach is likely to be applicable to drought-prone river basins worldwide where the spatial patterns of future water availability differ from spatial patterns of future water demand.

引用

页数：14

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