The impact and spin-off of participatory backcasting: From vision to niche

This paper reports on a study that has systematically investigated the follow-up and spin-off of participatory backcasting experiments in the Netherlands five to ten years after completion. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is presented, after which a conceptual framework is developed to describe and evaluate the impact of backcasting experiments. Three cases are analysed: (1) Novel Protein Foods and meat alternatives: (2) Sustainable Household Nutrition; and (3) Multiple Sustainable Land-use in rural areas. The cases show that participatory backcasting can lead to substantial follow-up and spin-off, but that is not always the case. Substantial follow-up and spin-off after five to ten years is predominantly found at the level of niches, and can be seen as potential seeds for future system innovations. The emergence of follow-up and spin-off comes along with the diffusion of the visions generated in the backcasting experiment. The visions provide orientation (where to go) and guidance (what to do). Visions also show both stability and flexibility. Factors that influence the extent of impact and spin-off of backcasting are identified, with a focus on stakeholders, learning and visions. Finally, relevance for system innovation theory, governance and policy as well as research recommendations are briefly discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.