Immigration and far-right voting: evidence from Greece

In this paper, we analyze the impact of immigration on Greek politics over the 2004-2012 period, exploiting panel data on 51 Greek regional units. We account for the potential endogenous clustering of migrants into more "tolerant" regions by using a shift-share-imputed instrument, based on their allocation in 1991. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that immigration is positively associated with the vote share of extreme-right parties, though the effects appear to be stronger during the Greek fiscal crisis. This finding appears to be robust to alternative controls, sample restrictions and different estimation methods. We do not find supportive evidence for the conjecture that natives "vote with their feet," i.e., move away from regions with high immigrant concentrations. We also find that the political success of the far-right comes at the expense of "Leftist" parties, thereby rejecting the idea that migration divides the society into different camps. Importantly, our analysis suggests that labor market concerns play a significant role in shaping native attitudes toward immigration.