Predictive Value of a Genomic Classifier in Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Based on Nodule Size

IMPORTANCE Genomic classifiers were developed to better guide clinicians in the treatment of indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs). To our knowledge, whether there is variation in the diagnostic accuracy of these tests depending on ITN size has not been previously studied. OBJECTIVE To analyze the diagnostic performance of a genomic classifier in relation to ITN size. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A case series study with medical records review was conducted including all patients with a cytologic diagnosis of ITN managed with genomic classifier testing and surgery from January 2015 to December 2018 at NYU Langone Health. Demographics, ITN characteristics, genomic profiles, treatment, and final pathologic findings were recorded. Data analysis was conducted from March to April 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary aim was to assess the positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), sensitivity, and specificity of a genomic classifier test (ThyroSeq) in relation to ITN size (<2, 2-4, and >4 cm). The secondary aim was to investigate the risk of cancer associated with genetic signatures. RESULTS Of the 212 patients with 218 ITNs, 158 (74.5%) were women; median (SD) age was 49 (15.6) years. Genomic classifier results were positive in 173 ITNs (79.4%) treated with surgery. In this group of 173 positive ITNs, 46 (26.6%) were malignant on final pathologic testing. Overall, the observed cancer prevalence in the population was 23.9% (52 ITNs). In 45 ITNs that underwent surgery despite a negative genomic classifier interpretation, 6 (13.3%) were malignant. The PPV of a positive test was 27% and the NPV was 87%. The PPV and NPV findings improved as the ITN size increased (<2 cm [n = 98]: PPV, 25%; NPV, 79% vs >4 cm [n = 33]: PPV, 50%; NPV, 89%). Test specificity was higher in larger ITNs (<2 cm: 15% vs >4 cm: 40%; P = .01). Isolated RAS sequence variations were the most common variant identified in malignant nodules (11 [21.1%] of all ITNs), followed by BRAF variants (7 [13.5%] of all ITNs). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this case series, the performance of the ThyroSeq test improved for larger ITNs. The risk of cancer in large ITNs with negative test results was low. These data suggest that, in genomic classifier-negative ITNs larger than 4 cm, initial management of thyroid lobectomy may be sufficient.