INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

被引：31

作者：

Bordo, Michael D. ^{[1
,2
]}

Helbling, Thomas F. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Rutgers State Univ, Piscataway, NJ 08855 USA

[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA

来源：

MANCHESTER SCHOOL | 2011年 / 79卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02236.x

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We analyze the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century that has occurred across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding contrasts with the mixed results reported in the recent literature, which has focused on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years. Examining the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the rising synchronization, we find that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.

引用

页码：208 / 238

页数：31