A methodology to generate a belief rule base for customer perception risk analysis in new product development

被引：38

作者：

Tang, Dawei ^{[1
,2
]}

Yang, Jian-Bo ^{[2
,3
]}

Chin, Kwai-Sang ^{[1
]}

Wong, Zoie S. Y. ^{[1
]}

Liu, Xinbao ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Mfg Engn & Engn Management, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Manchester, Manchester Business Sch, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England

[3] Hefei Univ Technol, Sch Management, Hefei, Peoples R China

来源：

EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS | 2011年 / 38卷 / 05期

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

Belief rule base generation; Risk analysis; New product development; EVIDENTIAL REASONING APPROACH; DECISION-MAKING; BAYESIAN NETWORK; PROJECT RISK;

D O I：

10.1016/j.eswa.2010.10.018

中图分类号：

TP18 [人工智能理论];

学科分类号：

081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;

摘要：

New product development (NPD) is crucial for a company's success in a competitive market. Meanwhile, NPD is a process associated with great complexity and high risk. To ensure its smooth operation, risks involved in an NPD process need to be analyzed in a proper way. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to generate a belief rule base (BRB), which is the basis of the Belief Rule-Base Inference Methodology using the Evidential Reasoning (RIMER). Due to its capability in dealing with complex reasoning problems under uncertainty, RIMER is then applied to assess customer perception risk (CPR) in an NPD process. To test and validate the method proposed in this paper, a case study of an "Interactive Doll" is conducted at the end of the paper. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：5373 / 5383

页数：11

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