Diagnostic Value of Clinical Parameters in the Prediction of Aspirin-Exacerbated Respiratory Disease in Asthma

Purpose: Aspirin-exacerbated respiratory disease (AERD) has attracted a great deal of attention because of its association with increased asthma severity. However, oral aspirin challenge (OAC) to diagnose AERD is a time-consuming procedure, and some patients experience serious complications. Thus, we evaluated diagnostic values of non-invasive clinical parameters to predict AERD in asthmatic patients. Methods: A total of 836 Korean subjects were recruited from an asthma cohort. They underwent OAC, and clinical parameters including the history of aspirin hypersensitivity, nasal polyposis, and chronic sinusitis of aspirin-tolerant asthma (ATA) and AERD asthmatic patients were compared. Results: Significant differences (P<0.01) were found in eight parameters: age at diagnosis, body mass index, FEV1%, PC20, history of urticaria, nasal polyps, chronic sinusitis, and history of aspirin hypersensitivity. After logistic regression analysis based on the eight clinical parameters, nasal polyps, history of aspirin intolerance, sinusitis, and log [PC20 methacholine] remained significantly associated with AERD (P<0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of the history of aspirin hypersensitivity to predict AERD were 64.7% and 92.0%, respectively, and the positive and negative predictive values were 56.9% and 94.1%, respectively. Overall, the accuracy of the test was 88.2%. The accuracy of the tests for nasal polyps and chronic sinusitis were 67.3% and 60.4%, respectively. Conclusions: Among clinical parameters associated with AERD, the history of aspirin hypersensitivity has the best positive and negative predictive values for the oral aspirin challenge test. Because the false-positive and -negative rates were still high, additional non-invasive methods are needed to reduce the rate of false outcomes.