Lung function and outcomes in emergency medical admissions

Background: We examine the ability of pre-existing measures of Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 s (FEV1), and Diffusion Capacity for Carbon Monoxide (DLCO) to determine the subsequent 30-day mortality outcome following unselected acute medical admission. Methods: Between 2002 and 2017, we studied all emergency medical admissions (106,586 episodes in 54,928 patients) of whom 8071 were classified as respiratory. We employed logisitic multiple variable regression models to evaluate the ability of FEV1 or DLCO to predict the 30-day hospital mortality outcome. Results: The 30-day hospital episode mortality outcome demonstrated curvilinear relationships to the underlying FEV1 or DLCO values; adjusted for major outcome predictors, a higher FEV1 - OR 0.85 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.89) or DLCO OR 0.76 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.79) values predicted survival. The range of predicted mortalities was from 3.3% (95% CI: 2.5, 4.0) to 23.5% (95% CI: 20.8, 26.2); the FEV1 (Modell) and DLCO (Model2) outcome prediction was essentially equivalent (Chit = 2.9: p = 0.08). Conclusion: The 30-day mortality outcome was clearly related to the pre-admission FEV1 and DLCO value. The outcome relationship was curvilinear. Either parameter appears a useful tool to explore hospital outcomes. Previously suggested cut-points are likely an artefact and not supported by these data.