Modelling the hydrological response of prairie pothole water bodies to climate variability

This paper describes a hydrological model that can simulate a surface-water complex comprised of tens-of-thousands or more closed-basin pothole lakes and wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada and the USA. This model incorporates a novel system for calibration that uses observed area-frequency power-law relationships for tens-of-thousands of water bodies, as well as water depths in individual water bodies, and a probabilistic modelling procedure to provide the 100-year response of a pothole complex through numerous periods of drought and deluge. Simulations show that over the last century major droughts and deluges created one to two orders-of-magnitude variability in the intercept of power laws on water area. Climate extremes varied from drought (Dust Bowl drought) to a deluge beginning in 1993. With pothole water bodies, groundwater has the potential to significantly impact surface water budgets, especially during dry periods.