The impact of climate on Leptospirosis in Sao Paulo, Brazil

被引:27
作者
Coelho, Micheline S. Z. S. [3 ]
Massad, Eduardo [1 ,2 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
[2] LIM01 HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil
[3] Inst Nacl Meteorol INMET, Coordenacao Desenvolvimento & Pesquisa CDP, BR-01246903 Sao Paulo, Brazil
[4] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, England
基金
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词
Leptospirosis; Negative binomial regression; Hospital admission; Climate;
D O I
10.1007/s00484-011-0419-4
中图分类号
Q6 [生物物理学];
学科分类号
071011 ;
摘要
In this work, we correlate the daily number of human leptospirosis cases with several climatic factors. We used a negative binomial model that considers hospital daily admissions due to leptospirosis as the dependent variable, and the climatic variables of daily precipitation pattern, and maximum and minimum temperature as independent variables. We calculated the monthly leptospirosis admission probabilities from the precipitation and maximum temperature variables. The month of February showed the highest probability, although values were also high during the spring months. The month of February also showed the highest number of hospital admissions. Another interesting result is that, for every 20 mm precipitation, there was an average increase of 31.5% in hospital admissions. Additionally, the relative risk of leptospirosis varied from 1.1 to 2.0 when the precipitation varied from 20 to 140 mm.
引用
收藏
页码:233 / 241
页数:9
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