Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

被引:28
作者
Wieder, William R. [1 ,2 ]
Kennedy, Daniel [1 ]
Lehner, Flavio [1 ,3 ]
Musselman, Keith N. [2 ]
Rodgers, Keith B. [4 ,5 ]
Rosenbloom, Nan [1 ]
Simpson, Isla R. [1 ]
Yamaguchi, Ryohei [4 ,5 ,6 ]
机构
[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[2] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[3] Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA
[4] Ctr Climate Phys, Inst Basic Sci, Busan 46241, South Korea
[5] Pusan Natl Univ, Busan 46241, South Korea
[6] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Res Inst Global Change, Kanagawa, Japan
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
climate change; ecohydrology; water resources; internal variability; large ensemble; COMMUNITY LAND MODEL; LARGE ENSEMBLES; UNITED-STATES; TRENDS; VARIABILITY; IMPACTS; EARTH; PRECIPITATION; ASSIMILATION; UNCERTAINTY;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.2202393119
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. Our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.
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页数:9
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