Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Digitaria insularis: Risk Analysis of Areas with Potential for Selection of Glyphosate-Resistant Biotypes in Eucalyptus Crops in Brazil

The objective of this study was to model the spatio-temporal distribution of Digitaria insularis (D. insularis) and analyze the risk of selection of glyphosate-resistant biotypes in eucalyptus cultivation in Brazil. Global data on the distribution of the specie were collected and associated with their ideal growth characteristics. The models were generated using Climex software, providing a predictive modeling technique. Biological data, species distribution, and climatic parameters were used to predict and map potential areas for the species of interest through the combination of growth and stress indices, giving rise to the Ecoclimatic Index (EI). The spatial distribution of D. insularis is predominantly in South and Central America and southern North America. The model had a good fit with the collected data and predicted higher EI values for tropical and subtropical regions, as was the case in Brazil. Species growth can occur throughout the year, with lower rates in winter, mainly in the country's southern regions. Brazil has high climatic suitability for the occurrence of Digitaria insularis. Due to the climate suitability evidenced by the models and the expressive use of the same active ingredient, there is a risk of selecting glyphosate-resistant Digitaria insularis biotypes in eucalyptus cultivation areas.