Nadir PSA is a strong predictor of treatment outcome in intermediate and high risk localized prostate cancer patients treated by definitive external beam radiotherapy and androgen deprivation

Background: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of tumor characteristics and parameters of treatment response in predicting biochemical disease-free survival (BFS) for patients with intermediate or high risk prostate cancer treated by combined definitive external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Methods: Between June 1995 and January 2015, 375 patients with localized prostate cancer and a National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate or high risk categories were treated by definitive EBRT and ADT. Median duration of androgen blockade was 10 months (range: 3-36 months); Median radiation dose was 72 Gy (Range: 70-78 Gy). Median follow-up time was 5.8 years (range: 0.8-16.39 years). The main study endpoint was biochemical disease free survival (BFS). Results: Forty seven patients (12.5%) developed biochemical recurrence (BCR) during the observation period. Monovariate analysis identified baseline PSA (bPSA) (p = 0.024), T-stage (p = 0.001), Gleason's score (GS) (p = 0.042), radiation dose (p = 0.045), PSA pre-radiation therapy (p = 0.048), and nadir PSA (nPSA), (p < 0.001) as significant variables affecting BCR. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve identified a nPSA of 0.06 ng/ml as optimal cut-off value significantly predicting the patients' risk of BCR (p < 0.001). Multivariate cox regression analysis revealed T-stage, GS, and nPSA as independent variable affecting BFS, while bPSA, age, and radiation dose were not. Conclusion: Nadir PSA at 0.06 is a strong independent predictor of BFS in patients with intermediate or high risk prostate cancer treated by definitive EBRT and ADT.