Projection of future cancer incidence and new cancer cases in Manitoba, 2006-2025

Introduction: Projecting the burden of cancer is important for evaluating prevention strategies and for administrative planning at cancer facilities. Methods: We projected cancer incidence and counts for the population of Manitoba using population projections from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics for the years 2006 to 2025 and cancer incidence data from the Manitoba Cancer Registry for the years 1976 to 2005. Data were analyzed using a version of the age-period-cohort model with recommended modifications that was developed and tested in the Nordic countries. Results: The overall incidence of cancer in Manitoba is not projected to change substantially from 2006 to 2025. However, the age-standardized incidence for lung cancer is expected to decrease, particularly for males, highlighting the importance of tobacco prevention. The total number of new cancer cases per year is expected to increase 36% over the projection period, attributable primarily to demographic changes. Conclusion: As the population of Manitoba increases, resource and infrastructure planning will need to account for the expected increase in cancer cases.