Stochastic Optimization Operation of the Integrated Energy System Based on a Novel Scenario Generation Method

The application of integrated energy systems is significant for realizing the comprehensive utilization of various energy sources and improving the utilization rate of renewable energy. At present, the optimal operation of integrated energy systems is a research hotspot. However, shortcomings remain in the stochastic optimization operation and the scenario generation method. This paper proposes a stochastic optimization operation model of an integrated energy microgrid based on an advanced multi-scenario generation method. First, this paper establishes the time-divided probability distribution model of the forecasting error of the uncertain factors, such as photovoltaic (PV) power and load, which provide the basis for generating scenarios. Moreover, the covariance matrix is used to calculate the time correlation of the time-divided probabilistic distributed models, and the parameters of the covariance matrix are optimized. Second, based on multiple typical scenarios, the stochastic optimization operation model of the integrated energy microgrid is established. Finally, the real data is used to verify the proposed method. The results show that the nonparametric kernel density estimation method has the best fitting effect. On this basis, the time correlation and the operation costs are compared with the scenario sets generated by other methods, which proves the advantages of the proposed multi-scenario generation method and stochastic optimization operation model.