Substorm-induced energetic electron precipitation: Morphology and prediction

The injection, and subsequent precipitation, of 20 to 300keV electrons during substorms is modeled using parameters of a typical substorm found in the literature. When combined with onset timing from, for example, the SuperMAG substorm database, or the Minimal Substorm Model, it may be used to calculate substorm contributions to energetic electron precipitation in atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Here the results are compared to ground-based data from the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies riometer in Kilpisjarvi, Finland, and the narrowband subionospheric VLF receiver at Sodankyla, Finland. Qualitatively, the model reproduces the observations well when only onset timing from the SuperMAG network of magnetometers is used as an input and is capable of reproducing all four categories of substorm associated riometer spike events. The results suggest that the different types of spike event are the same phenomena observed at different locations, with each type emerging from the model results at a different local time, relative to the centerof the injection region. The model's ability to reproduce the morphology of spike events more accurately than previous models is attributed to the injection of energetic electrons being concentrated specifically in the regions undergoing dipolarization, instead of uniformly across a single-injection region.