The potential distribution of bioenergy crops in the UK under present and future climate

被引：25

作者：

Bellarby, Jessica ^{[1
]}

Wattenbach, Martin ^{[1
,3
]}

Tuck, Gill ^{[2
]}

Glendining, Margaret J. ^{[2
]}

Smith, Pete ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Aberdeen, Sch Biol Sci, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, Scotland

[2] Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England

[3] Free Univ Berlin, Inst Meteorol, D-12165 Berlin, Germany

来源：

BIOMASS & BIOENERGY | 2010年 / 34卷 / 12期

关键词：

Bioenergy crops; Biofuel crops; UKCIP02; scenarios; Modelling; Climate change; GIS mapping;

D O I：

10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.08.009

中图分类号：

S2 [农业工程];

学科分类号：

0828 ;

摘要：

We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the simple model described by Tuck et al. [1]. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions. In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation, temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results. Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas and crops that are mostlikely to be affected by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1935 / 1945

页数：11

共 14 条

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