Spatiotemporal variation of land-use carbon emissions and its implications for low carbon and ecological civilization strategies: Evidence from Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan circle, China

This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of historical and future land-use carbon emission (LUCE) in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou metropolitan circle, China, to obtain policy implications for low carbon and ecological security by simulating land use change under low carbon and ecological security (LCES) scenario and business as usual (BAU) scenario in 2030. Our results showed that: (1) Under LCES scenario, the area of arable land and construction land was 1.17% and 0.40% less than that under BAU scenario, whereas the area of forest land was 1.90% more than that. (2) LUCE increased by 1284.78x10(4) tons totally in 2000-2020. Whereas under LCES scenario, LUCE was 128.74x10(4) tons less than that under BAU scenario, and the carbon absorption of forest land increased by 24.90x10(4) tons. (3) At city scale, LUCE in cities followed the order of Quanzhou > Z-hangzhou > Xiamen in 2000-2030. The county scale witnessed rapid-growth and heavy LUCE in coast over time. LUCE at grid scale showed an expansion from coast to inland all the time, but it was alleviated under LCES scenario. The quantity and spatial structure of land use types should be optimized, and low-carbon and ecological classification management should be implemented at arable land, forest land and construction land strictly.