Predicting the number of cases of dengue infection in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, using a SARIMA model

被引：32

作者：

Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi ^{[1
]}

Soares da Silva, Elisangela Aparecida ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med Ribeirao Preto, BR-14049900 Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil

来源：

CADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA | 2011年 / 27卷 / 09期

关键词：

Dengue; Forecasting; Brostatistics; RIO-DE-JANEIRO; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER; VIRUS TYPE-3; NORTHEASTERN; SURVEILLANCE; TRANSMISSION; DIAGNOSIS; EPIDEMIC; THAILAND;

D O I：

10.1590/S0102-311X2011000900014

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

This study aimed to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of dengue in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, using time series analysis. The model was performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Firstly, we fitted a model considering monthly notifications of cases of dengue recorded from 2000 to 2008 in Ribeirao Preto. We then extracted predicted values for 2009 from the adjusted model and compared them with the number of cases observed for that year. The SARIMA (2,1,3) (1,1,1) 12 model offered best fit for the dengue incidence data. The results showed that the seasonal ARIMA model predicts the number of dengue cases very effectively and reliably, and is a useful tool for disease control and prevention.

引用

页码：1809 / 1818

页数：10

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