Risk-sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change

被引：160

作者：

Beyer, Hawthorne L. ^{[1
,2
]}

Kennedy, Emma, V ^{[1
]}

Beger, Maria ^{[2
,4
]}

Chen, Chaolun Allen ^{[5
,6
]}

Cinner, Joshua E. ^{[7
]}

Darling, Emily S. ^{[8
,9
]}

Eakin, C. Mark ^{[10
]}

Gates, Ruth D. ^{[11
]}

Heron, Scott F. ^{[10
,12
]}

Knowlton, Nancy ^{[13
]}

Obura, David O. ^{[14
]}

Palumbi, Stephen R. ^{[15
]}

Possingham, Hugh P. ^{[2
,3
,16
]}

Puotinen, Marji ^{[17
]}

Runting, Rebecca K. ^{[3
]}

Skirving, William J. ^{[10
]}

Spalding, Mark ^{[18
,19
,20
]}

Wilson, Kerrie A. ^{[2
,3
]}

Wood, Sally ^{[21
]}

Veron, John E. ^{[22
]}

Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove ^{[1
,3
,23
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Queensland, Global Change Inst, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia

[2] Univ Queensland, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Environm De, St Lucia, Qld, Australia

[3] Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, St Lucia, Qld, Australia

[4] Univ Leeds, Fac Biol Sci, Sch Biol, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[5] Acad Sinica, Biodivers Res Ctr, Taipei, Taiwan

[6] Natl Taiwan Univ, Inst Oceanog, Taipei, Taiwan

[7] James Cook Univ, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Coral Reef, Townsville, Qld, Australia

[8] Univ Toronto, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Toronto, ON, Canada

[9] Wildlife Conservat Soc, Marine Program, Bronx, NY USA

[10] NOAA, Coral Reef Watch, College Pk, MD USA

[11] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Hawaii Inst Marine Biol, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Kane Ohe, HI USA

[12] James Cook Univ, Coll Sci & Engn, Phys Dept, Marine Geophys Lab, Townsville, Qld, Australia

[13] Smithsonian Inst, Dept Invertebrate Zool, Natl Museum Nat Hist, Washington, DC 20560 USA

[14] CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya

[15] Stanford Univ, Hopkins Marine Stn, Dept Biol, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA

[16] Nature Conservancy, South Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[17] Univ Western Australia, Australian Inst Marine Sci, Indian Ocean Marine Res Ctr, Crawley, WA, Australia

[18] Nature Conservancy, Global Ocean Team, Arlington, VA USA

[19] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge, England

[20] Univ Siena, Dept Phys Earth & Environm Sci, Siena, Italy

[21] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England

[22] Coral Reef Res, Townsville, Qld, Australia

[23] Univ Queensland, Australian Res Council Ctr Excellence Coral Reef, St Lucia, Qld, Australia

来源：

CONSERVATION LETTERS | 2018年 / 11卷 / 06期

关键词：

climate change; connectivity; conservation; coral reef; cyclone; global; ocean warming; optimization; planning; portfolio theory; CONSERVATION; ADAPTATION; COASTAL; SAVE; NEED;

D O I：

10.1111/conl.12587

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

Coral reef ecosystems are seriously threatened by changing conditions in the ocean. Although many factors are implicated, climate change has emerged as a dominant and rapidly growing threat. Developing a long-term strategic plan for the conservation of coral reefs is urgently needed yet is complicated by significant uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on coral reef ecosystems. We use Modern Portfolio Theory to identify coral reef locations globally that, in the absence of other impacts, are likely to have a heightened chance of surviving projected climate changes relative to other reefs. Long-term planning that is robust to uncertainty in future conditions provides an objective and transparent framework for guiding conservation action and strategic investment. These locations constitute important opportunities for novel conservation investments to secure less vulnerable yet well-connected coral reefs that may, in turn, help to repopulate degraded areas in the event that the climate has stabilized.

引用

页数：10

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