Out-migration, social capital and the cooperative dilemma: evidence from Bulgaria's population crisis

This study examines the effects of out-migration on social capital in sending communities. I first conceptualise social capital as the presence of social trust and engagement at the individual-level of analysis. Drawing from established theories of cooperation, I then argue that subnational out-migration acts as a structural-level signal that changes people's incentives to trust others and engage in social activities. I use the current migration crisis in Bulgaria to test this argument. Findings from multi-level models that combine cross-sectional survey data and subnational migration flows indicate that high out-migration is correlated with lower levels of generalised trust. Out-migration is also associated with higher frequencies of informal social engagement, indicating that people rely more on their immediate social networks in environments of heavy out-migration. The overall evidence suggests that out-migration is a threat to social capital in sending communities.