Role of triglycerides as a predictor of autoimmune hepatitis with cirrhosis

Background Metabolism-related indicators have been suggested as possible prognostic indicators of liver disease in recent relevant studies, but their value in predicting autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) cirrhosis is unclear. This study evaluated the role of lipid levels in determining the prognosis of AIH-related cirrhosis. Methods We retrospectively included 345 patients with AIH who were initially diagnosed at Beijing Ditan Hospital from 2010-2019, and ultimately screened 196 patients who met the criteria. A logistic regression analysis was performed to screen factors associated with cirrhosis. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were constructed to analyze the effects of different triglyceride (TG) levels on the survival of patients with cirrhosis. A restricted cubic spline fitted Cox regression model was used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between serum TG levels and patient prognosis. Results Patients with AIH cirrhosis have lower TG levels than those without cirrhosis. Lower serum TG levels correlated with the severity of cirrhosis. The survival analysis showed that TG levels were associated with the overall survival of patients with AIH, as a lower 5-year survival rate (log-rank P<0.05) was observed for patients in the TG <= 0.95 mmol/L group (hazard ratio (HR)=3.79, 95% CI: 1.528-9.423). In addition, lower TG levels were associated with a higher incidence of death in patients with AIH cirrhosis. The risk of death gradually increased for the interval of TG levels of 0.5-0.8 mmol/L (P for nonlinearity<0.001), and the hazard ratio per standard deviation increase in the TG level was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94-0.99). The plot showed a U-shaped relationship between TG levels and the survival of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The risk ratio progressively decreased with lower TG levels (P for nonlinearity=0.002). Below 0.6 mmol/L, the probability of TG risk per standard deviation prediction was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.00-2.24). Conclusion Serum TG levels are closely related to the disease severity and overall survival of patients with AIH cirrhosis and may be used as a new indicator of advanced liver disease and long-term prognosis.