A probabilistic approach for earthquake loss estimation

Emergency responses following an earthquake and recovery of damaged structures have major impact on the government budget, thus setting back economic development. In earthquake countries, taking effective measures to reduce earthquake loss becomes important issue. This paper presents a probabilistic model for earthquake loss estimation of a town under earthquake risk. The model enables the decision-makers to make more reliable decisions, before and after an earthquake that strikes the town, by considering probability distribution and variability instead of deterministic approach. Life cycle cost concept is taken into account in the formulation of earthquake loss. Therefore, the model simulates all the benefits and costs, which are prone to variation within Monte Carlo framework. Adapazari, which is extensively damaged city in 1999 earthquake of Turkey, is chosen for the application of Monte Carlo Simulation Model. The model can be used to assess the effects of recovery periods. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.