The future demand for and structural problems of Japanese radiotherapy

Background: Recently, as the number of elderly people in Japan is growing, so is the number of new cancer cases. The number of patients treated with radiotherapy is therefore also on the increase, so that it is important to estimate the future demand for radiotherapy and to make preparations for it. Methods: All the surveys were conducted for 106 facilities selected randomly out of 556 radiotherapy facilities in Japan. To obtain trends in the number of new cancer patients treated with radiotherapy in Japan, we conducted a survey with a self-administered mail questionnaire designed to obtain the number of new patients treated with radiotherapy for each year of the past decade (1990-99). The future number of new patients treated with radiotherapy was estimated from the data thus obtained. To investigate structural problems of Japanese radiotherapy, surveys about the number of treatment machines and full-time equivalent (FTE) radiation oncologists were conducted according to data from the Japanese Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (JASTRO) structure survey and the Patterns of Care Study (PCS). We also compared the structure of Japanese radiotherapy with that in the USA. Results: The number of patients treated with radiotherapy has increased for every institutional stratum, with an overall increase of 1.4-fold over the past 10 years in Japan. It is estimated that the number of cancer patients treated with radiotherapy will reach 190000 in 2015. In Japanese non-academic institutions, less than one FTE radiation oncologist has been managing many of these patients. In both equipment and manpower, academic institutions exceed nonacademic institutions. Conclusion: The future demand for Japanese radiotherapy will grow substantially, so that it is of vital importance to prepare for it. Specifically, the number of FTE radiation oncologists must be increased.