The drift-retention dichotomy on Browns Bank: a model study of interannual variability

Interannual variability in drift and retention in the Browns Bank region in spring was investigated by tracking particles in numerical-model estimates of the seasonal mean circulation and monthly mean flow anomalies computed using wind and sea-level data. The circulation changes associated with the variable forcing tend to reinforce either drift to the Bay of Fundy or retention in the vicinity of Browns Bank. Regular spring spawning can lead to widely different distributions of 1-month-old larvae, supporting the concept of a drift-retention dichotomy for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae in the region. Analysis of interannual variability indicates that retention has bounded properties that must be accounted for when relating retention variability to forcing indices. As well, the nonlinearities associated with calculating particle trajectories from velocity fields contribute about 10% of the variance in retention indices. Comparison with biologically based indices of haddock survival indicates that circulation variability alone is not the dominant influence on survival to ages 1 and 2 years. However, it can be expected to have a significant influence in conjunction with biological factors such as the location and timing of peak spawning and the variable vertical position of eggs and larvae.