Definition of Risk Indicators for Reservoirs Management Optimization

An alternative procedure for drought risk assessment and for the mitigation of drought risk is proposed in the paper. An analysis of the relationship between failure of water supply systems and reservoir volumes for the urban area of Firenze in central Tuscany, in central Italy, is performed. Long term simulations are carried out using the software package WEAP. A simplified model of the water resources system is built to assess the threshold values and the management rules. The probability to have definite degree of shortage in the water supply system is evaluated in function of the volume stored in the reservoir at the beginning of the month with Monte Carlo simulations. The reservoir levels and volumes are simulated using time series of the period 1970-2005. Four scenarios (i.e. normal, pre-alert, alert and emergency) associated with different levels of severity of drought are defined. Threshold values are identified considering the probability to assure a given fraction of the demand in a certain time horizon, and are calibrated with an optimization method, which try to minimize the water shortages, especially the heavier. The critical situations are assessed month by month in order to evaluate optimal management rules during the year and avoid conditions of total water shortage.