Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan

被引：428
作者：
Ndairoua, Faical [1 ,2 ]
Area, Ivan [2 ]
Nieto, Juan J. [3 ]
Torres, Delfim F. M. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Aveiro, Ctr Res & Dev Math & Applicat CIDMA, Dept Math, P-3810193 Aveiro, Portugal
[2] Univ Vigo, Dept Matemat Aplicada 2 EE Aeronaut & Espazo, Campus Ourense, Orense 32004, Spain
[3] Univ Santiago de Compostela, Inst Matemat, Santiago De Compostela 15782, Spain
来源：
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS | 2020年 / 135卷
关键词：
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 pandemic; Wuhan case study; Basic reproduction number; Stability; Sensitivity analysis; Numerical simulations; DISEASE;
D O I：
10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109846
中图分类号：
O1 [数学];
学科分类号：
0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要：
We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability of the disease free equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number, and we investigate the sensitivity of the model with respect to the variation of each one of its parameters. Numerical simulations show the suitability of the proposed COVID-19 model for the outbreak that occurred in Wuhan, China. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页数：6
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