Identifying the Service Areas and Travel Demand of the Commuter Customized Bus Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data

In recent years, customized bus (CB), as a complementary form of urban public transport, can reduce residents' travel costs, alleviate urban traffic congestion, reduce vehicle exhaust emissions, and contribute to the sustainable development of society. At present, customized bus travel demand information collection method is passive. There exist disadvantages such as the amount of information obtained is less, the access method is relatively single, and more potential travel demands cannot be met. This study aims to combine mobile phone signaling data, point of interest (POI) data, and secondary property price data to propose a method for identifying the service areas of commuter CB and travel demand. Firstly, mobile phone signaling data is preprocessed to identify the commuter's location of employment and residence. Based on this, the time-space potential model for commuter CB is proposed. Secondly, objective factors affecting commuters' choice to take commuter CB are used as model input variables. Logistic regression models are applied to estimate the probability of the grids being used as commuter CB service areas and the probability of the existence of potential travel demand in the grids and, further, to dig into the time-space distribution characteristics of people with potential demand for CB travel and analyze the distribution of high hotspot service areas. Finally, the analysis is carried out with practical cases and three lines are used as examples. The results show that the operating companies are profitable without government subsidies, which confirms the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper in practical applications.