Summertime Temperature Variability Increases With Local Warming in Midlatitude Regions

Climate change presents risks both in terms of warming and increased variability that are heightened when compounded. It is thus notable that the simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) showing greater Northern midlatitude continental warming also show a greater increase in monthly average temperature variance, particularly in Europe. European variability increases with warming at a rate of 0.40 degrees C-2/degrees C (95% C.I. [0.28, 0.50]), with local warming rates explaining 71% of the intermodel difference in variability changes. Coupling between warming and variance increases the probability of high temperatures compared to a scenario where variance is stable. If warming were to reach 6 degrees C, the risk of monthly average temperature exceeding a 30 degrees C threshold is 4 times greater in the increased-variance scenario. Despite the simple scaling across models suggesting some common origin, changes in model temperature and variance potentially involve a range of mechanisms whose contributions remain unclear. Plain Language Summary Extreme and persistent summertime temperatures present risks to human health, property, and natural systems. The frequency of hot extremes increases in response to both growing mean temperature and increasing variability. Here we show that models that predict higher summertime warming also predict greater increases in temperature variability in midlatitude continents, especially in Europe. The combination of warming and increased variability makes the chances of hot extremes much greater than if temperature variance stayed constant. The reasons for increased variability may involve changes in soil moisture, variability in local radiation, and changes in atmospheric circulation, but exactly why a simple scaling between warming and increased variance emerges in Europe and elsewhere is unclear.