Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

被引：514

作者：

Anderegg, William R. L. ^{[1
]}

Trugman, Anna T. ^{[2
]}

Badgley, Grayson ^{[1
]}

Anderson, Christa M. ^{[3
]}

Bartuska, Ann ^{[4
]}

Ciais, Philippe ^{[5
]}

Cullenward, Danny ^{[6
]}

Field, Christopher B. ^{[7
]}

Freeman, Jeremy ^{[8
]}

Goetz, Scott J. ^{[9
]}

Hicke, Jeffrey A. ^{[10
]}

Huntzinger, Deborah ^{[11
]}

Jackson, Robert B. ^{[7
,12
,13
]}

Nickerson, John ^{[14
]}

Pacala, Stephen ^{[15
]}

Randerson, James T. ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Utah, Sch Biol Sci, Salt Lake City, UT 84113 USA

[2] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[3] World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th St,NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA

[4] Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA

[5] UVSQ, CNRS, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, CEA,Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[6] Stanford Law Sch, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[7] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[8] CarbonPlan, San Francisco, CA 94110 USA

[9] No Arizona Univ, Sch Informat & Comp, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[10] Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, Moscow, ID 83844 USA

[11] No Arizona Univ, Sch Earth & Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[12] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[13] Stanford Univ, Precourt Inst, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[14] Climate Action Reserve, Los Angeles, CA 90017 USA

[15] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[16] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2020年 / 368卷 / 6497期

基金：

美国食品与农业研究所; 美国安德鲁·梅隆基金会; 欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

GLOBAL FIRE EMISSIONS; MOUNTAIN PINE-BEETLE; DROUGHT-INDUCED TREE; UNITED-STATES; SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS; NATURAL DISTURBANCES; BIOTIC DISTURBANCES; AMAZONIAN FORESTS; CARBON BUDGET; MORTALITY;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aaz7005

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.

引用

页码：1327 / +

页数：10

共 137 条

[41] Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges [J].

Dietze, Michael C. ;

Fox, Andrew ;

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. ;

Betancourt, Julio L. ;

Hooten, Mevin B. ;

Jarnevich, Catherine S. ;

Keitt, Timothy H. ;

Kenney, Melissa A. ;

Laney, Christine M. ;

Larsen, Laurel G. ;

Loescher, Henry W. ;

Lunch, Claire K. ;

Pijanowski, Bryan C. ;

Randerson, James T. ;

Read, Emily K. ;

Tredennick, Andrew T. ;

Vargas, Rodrigo ;

Weathers, Kathleen C. ;

White, Ethan P. .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2018, 115 (07) :1424-1432

[42] A general ecophysiological framework for modelling the impact of pests and pathogens on forest ecosystems [J].

Dietze, Michael C. ;

Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala .

ECOLOGY LETTERS, 2014, 17 (11) :1418-1426

[43] The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation: High-resolution laser ranging of the Earth's forests and topography [J].

Dubayah, Ralph ;

Blair, James Bryan ;

Goetz, Scott ;

Fatoyinbo, Lola ;

Hansen, Matthew ;

Healey, Sean ;

Hofton, Michelle ;

Hurtt, George ;

Kellner, James ;

Luthcke, Scott ;

Armston, John ;

Tang, Hao ;

Duncanson, Laura ;

Hancock, Steven ;

Jantz, Patrick ;

Marselis, Suzanne ;

Patterson, Paul L. ;

Qi, Wenlu ;

Silva, Carlos .

SCIENCE OF REMOTE SENSING, 2020, 1

[44] Big data integration shows Australian bush-fire frequency is increasing significantly [J].

Dutta, Ritaban ;

Das, Aruneema ;

Aryal, Jagannath .

ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE, 2016, 3 (02)

[45] Recovery dynamics and climate change effects to future New England forests [J].

Duveneck, Matthew J. ;

Thompson, Jonathan R. ;

Gustafson, Eric J. ;

Liang, Yu ;

de Bruijn, Arjan M. G. .

LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, 2017, 32 (07) :1385-1397

[46] Future Spruce Budworm Outbreak May Create a Carbon Source in Eastern Canadian Forests [J].

Dymond, Caren C. ;

Neilson, Eric T. ;

Stinson, Graham ;

Porter, Kevin ;

MacLean, David A. ;

Gray, David R. ;

Campagna, Michel ;

Kurz, Werner A. .

ECOSYSTEMS, 2010, 13 (06) :917-931

[47] Natural climate solutions for the United States [J].

Fargione, Joseph E. ;

Bassett, Steven ;

Boucher, Timothy ;

Bridgham, Scott D. ;

Conant, Richard T. ;

Cook-Patton, Susan C. ;

Ellis, Peter W. ;

Falcucci, Alessandra ;

Fourqurean, James W. ;

Gopalakrishna, Trisha ;

Gu, Huan ;

Henderson, Benjamin ;

Hurteau, Matthew D. ;

Kroeger, Kevin D. ;

Kroeger, Timm ;

Lark, Tyler J. ;

Leavitt, Sara M. ;

Lomax, Guy ;

McDonald, Robert, I ;

Megonigal, J. Patrick ;

Miteva, Daniela A. ;

Richardson, Curtis J. ;

Sanderman, Jonathan ;

Shoch, David ;

Spawn, Seth A. ;

Veldman, Joseph W. ;

Williams, Christopher A. ;

Woodbury, Peter B. ;

Zganjar, Chris ;

Baranski, Marci ;

Elias, Patricia ;

Houghton, Richard A. ;

Landis, Emily ;

McGlynn, Emily ;

Schlesinger, William H. ;

Siikamaki, Juha, V ;

Sutton-Grier, Ariana E. ;

Griscom, Bronson W. .

SCIENCE ADVANCES, 2018, 4 (11)

[48] Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities [J].

Fisher, Rosie A. ;

Koven, Charles D. ;

Anderegg, William R. L. ;

Christoffersen, Bradley O. ;

Dietze, Michael C. ;

Farrior, Caroline E. ;

Holm, Jennifer A. ;

Hurtt, George C. ;

Knox, Ryan G. ;

Lawrence, Peter J. ;

Lichstein, Jeremy W. ;

Longo, Marcos ;

Matheny, Ashley M. ;

Medvigy, David ;

Muller-Landau, Helene C. ;

Powell, Thomas L. ;

Serbin, Shawn P. ;

Sato, Hisashi ;

Shuman, Jacquelyn K. ;

Smith, Benjamin ;

Trugman, Anna T. ;

Viskari, Toni ;

Verbeeck, Hans ;

Weng, Ensheng ;

Xu, Chonggang ;

Xu, Xiangtao ;

Zhang, Tao ;

Moorcroft, Paul R. .

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (01) :35-54

[49] The impacts of tropical cyclones on the net carbon balance of eastern US forests (1851-2000) [J].

Fisk, J. P. ;

Hurtt, G. C. ;

Chambers, J. Q. ;

Zeng, H. ;

Dolan, K. A. ;

Negron-Juarez, R. I. .

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2013, 8 (04)

[50] Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century [J].

Flannigan, Mike ;

Cantin, Alan S. ;

de Groot, William J. ;

Wotton, Mike ;

Newbery, Alison ;

Gowman, Lynn M. .

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2013, 294 :54-61

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 →