Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests

被引：456

作者：

Anderegg, William R. L. ^{[1
]}

Trugman, Anna T. ^{[2
]}

Badgley, Grayson ^{[1
]}

Anderson, Christa M. ^{[3
]}

Bartuska, Ann ^{[4
]}

Ciais, Philippe ^{[5
]}

Cullenward, Danny ^{[6
]}

Field, Christopher B. ^{[7
]}

Freeman, Jeremy ^{[8
]}

Goetz, Scott J. ^{[9
]}

Hicke, Jeffrey A. ^{[10
]}

Huntzinger, Deborah ^{[11
]}

Jackson, Robert B. ^{[7
,12
,13
]}

Nickerson, John ^{[14
]}

Pacala, Stephen ^{[15
]}

Randerson, James T. ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Utah, Sch Biol Sci, Salt Lake City, UT 84113 USA

[2] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[3] World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th St,NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA

[4] Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA

[5] UVSQ, CNRS, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, CEA,Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

[6] Stanford Law Sch, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[7] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[8] CarbonPlan, San Francisco, CA 94110 USA

[9] No Arizona Univ, Sch Informat & Comp, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[10] Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, Moscow, ID 83844 USA

[11] No Arizona Univ, Sch Earth & Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[12] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[13] Stanford Univ, Precourt Inst, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[14] Climate Action Reserve, Los Angeles, CA 90017 USA

[15] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[16] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2020年 / 368卷 / 6497期

基金：

美国食品与农业研究所; 美国安德鲁·梅隆基金会; 欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

GLOBAL FIRE EMISSIONS; MOUNTAIN PINE-BEETLE; DROUGHT-INDUCED TREE; UNITED-STATES; SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS; NATURAL DISTURBANCES; BIOTIC DISTURBANCES; AMAZONIAN FORESTS; CARBON BUDGET; MORTALITY;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aaz7005

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.

引用

页码：1327 / +

页数：10

共 137 条

[1] Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests [J].

Abatzoglou, John T. ;

Williams, A. Park .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2016, 113 (42) :11770-11775

[2] A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality [J].

Adams, Henry D. ;

Zeppel, Melanie J. B. ;

Anderegg, William R. L. ;

Hartmann, Henrik ;

Landhausser, Simon M. ;

Tissue, David T. ;

Huxman, Travis E. ;

Hudson, Patrick J. ;

Franz, Trenton E. ;

Allen, Craig D. ;

Anderegg, Leander D. L. ;

Barron-Gafford, Greg A. ;

Beerling, David J. ;

Breshears, David D. ;

Brodribb, Timothy J. ;

Bugmann, Harald ;

Cobb, Richard C. ;

Collins, Adam D. ;

Dickman, L. Turin ;

Duan, Honglang ;

Ewers, Brent E. ;

Galiano, Lucia ;

Galvez, David A. ;

Garcia-Forner, Nuria ;

Gaylord, Monica L. ;

Germino, Matthew J. ;

Gessler, Arthur ;

Hacke, Uwe G. ;

Hakamada, Rodrigo ;

Hector, Andy ;

Jenkins, Michael W. ;

Kane, Jeffrey M. ;

Kolb, Thomas E. ;

Law, Darin J. ;

Lewis, James D. ;

Limousin, Jean-Marc ;

Love, David M. ;

Macalady, Alison K. ;

Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi ;

Mencuccini, Maurizio ;

Mitchell, Patrick J. ;

Muss, Jordan D. ;

O'Brien, Michael J. ;

O'Grady, Anthony P. ;

Pangle, Robert E. ;

Pinkard, Elizabeth A. ;

Piper, Frida I. ;

Plaut, Jennifer A. ;

Pockman, William T. ;

Quirk, Joe .

NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION, 2017, 1 (09) :1285-1291

[3] Interactions across spatial scales among forest dieback, fire, and erosion in northern New Mexico landscapes [J].

Allen, Craig D. .

ECOSYSTEMS, 2007, 10 (05) :797-808

[4] On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene [J].

Allen, Craig D. ;

Breshears, David D. ;

McDowell, Nate G. .

ECOSPHERE, 2015, 6 (08)

[5] A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests [J].

Allen, Craig D. ;

Macalady, Alison K. ;

Chenchouni, Haroun ;

Bachelet, Dominique ;

McDowell, Nate ;

Vennetier, Michel ;

Kitzberger, Thomas ;

Rigling, Andreas ;

Breshears, David D. ;

Hogg, E. H. ;

Gonzalez, Patrick ;

Fensham, Rod ;

Zhang, Zhen ;

Castro, Jorge ;

Demidova, Natalia ;

Lim, Jong-Hwan ;

Allard, Gillian ;

Running, Steven W. ;

Semerci, Akkin ;

Cobb, Neil .

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2010, 259 (04) :660-684

[6] Ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes after disturbance in forests of North America [J].

Amiro, B. D. ;

Barr, A. G. ;

Barr, J. G. ;

Black, T. A. ;

Bracho, R. ;

Brown, M. ;

Chen, J. ;

Clark, K. L. ;

Davis, K. J. ;

Desai, A. R. ;

Dore, S. ;

Engel, V. ;

Fuentes, J. D. ;

Goldstein, A. H. ;

Goulden, M. L. ;

Kolb, T. E. ;

Lavigne, M. B. ;

Law, B. E. ;

Margolis, H. A. ;

Martin, T. ;

McCaughey, J. H. ;

Misson, L. ;

Montes-Helu, M. ;

Noormets, A. ;

Randerson, J. T. ;

Starr, G. ;

Xiao, J. .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES, 2010, 115

[7] A human-driven decline in global burned area [J].

Andela, N. ;

Morton, D. C. ;

Giglio, L. ;

Chen, Y. ;

van der Werf, G. R. ;

Kasibhatla, P. S. ;

DeFries, R. S. ;

Collatz, G. J. ;

Hantson, S. ;

Kloster, S. ;

Bachelet, D. ;

Forrest, M. ;

Lasslop, G. ;

Li, F. ;

Mangeon, S. ;

Melton, J. R. ;

Yue, C. ;

Randerson, J. T. .

SCIENCE, 2017, 356 (6345) :1356-1361

[8] Widespread drought-induced tree mortality at dry range edges indicates that climate stress exceeds species' compensating mechanisms [J].

Anderegg, William R. L. ;

Anderegg, Leander D. L. ;

Kerr, Kelly L. ;

Trugman, Anna T. .

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2019, 25 (11) :3793-3802

[9] Meta-analysis reveals that hydraulic traits explain cross-species patterns of drought-induced tree mortality across the globe [J].

Anderegg, William R. L. ;

Klein, Tamir ;

Bartlett, Megan ;

Sack, Lawren ;

Pellegrini, Adam F. A. ;

Choat, Brendan ;

Jansen, Steven .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2016, 113 (18) :5024-5029

[10] Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate [J].

Anderegg, William R. L. ;

Hicke, Jeffrey A. ;

Fisher, Rosie A. ;

Allen, Craig D. ;

Aukema, Juliann ;

Bentz, Barbara ;

Hood, Sharon ;

Lichstein, Jeremy W. ;

Macalady, Alison K. ;

McDowell, Nate ;

Pan, Yude ;

Raffa, Kenneth ;

Sala, Anna ;

Shaw, John D. ;

Stephenson, Nathan L. ;

Tague, Christina ;

Zeppel, Melanie .

NEW PHYTOLOGIST, 2015, 208 (03) :674-683

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 →