Water storage and agricultural resilience to drought: historical evidence of the capacity and institutional limits in the United States

Food systems are particularly sensitive to changing precipitation patterns. Resilience via irrigation will depend on baseline conditions, water source, and institutional constraints which have not been studied jointly. We draw on over 100 years of agricultural production and weather data across the United States to identify the extent to which access to stored water-distinguished by its source and location-affects drought resiliency. Arid regions with access to stored water avoided the 13% losses in crop value experienced in irrigated areas with more limited storage during droughts. Humid regions are also beginning to adopt irrigation, but with less aggregate impact during drought. The incomplete governance of groundwater withdrawals in many areas allow resiliency in the near-term, but potentially at the expense of future water availability. Conversely, surface water rights allow for the widespread application of irrigation water, but with less resiliency during significant periods of drought.