Phylogenetic composition of native island floras influences naturalized alien species richness

Islands are hotspots of plant endemism and are particularly vulnerable to the establishment (naturalization) of alien plant species. Naturalized species richness on islands depends on several biogeographical and socioeconomic factors, but especially on remoteness. One potential explanation for this is that the phylogenetically imbalanced composition of native floras on remote islands leaves unoccupied niche space for alien species to colonize. Here, we tested whether the species richness of naturalized seed plants on 249 islands worldwide is related to the phylogenetic composition of their native floras. To this end, we calculated standardized effect size (ses) accounting for species richness for three phylogenetic assemblage metrics (Faith's phylogenetic diversity (PD), PDses; mean pairwise distance (MPD), MPDses; and mean nearest taxon distance (MNTD), MNTDses) based on a phylogeny of 42 135 native island plant species and related them to naturalized species richness. As covariates in generalized linear mixed models, we included native species richness and biogeographical, climatic and socioeconomic island characteristics known to affect naturalized species richness. Our analysis showed an increase in naturalized species richness with increasing phylogenetic clustering of the native assemblages (i.e. native species more closely related than expected by chance), most prominently with MPDses. This effect, however, was smaller than the influence of native species richness and biogeographical factors, e.g. remoteness. Further, the effect of native phylogenetic structure (MPDses) on naturalized species richness was stronger for smaller islands, but this pattern was not consistent across all phylogenetic assemblage metrics. This finding suggests that the phylogenetic composition of native island floras may affect naturalized species richness, particularly on small islands where species are more likely to co-occur locally. Overall, we conclude that the composition of native island assemblages affects their susceptibility to plant naturalizations in addition to other socioeconomic and biogeographical factors, and should be considered when assessing invasion risks on islands.