Crime down in the Paris of the prairies: Spatial effects of COVID-19 and crime during lockdown in Saskatoon, Canada

Objectives: To test for statistically significant changes in crime rates across neighbourhoods in Saskatoon, Canada resulting from social restrictions within the natural experiment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A spatial point pattern test is used to identify statistically significant change in crime patterns across Saskatoon's neighbourhoods because of COVID-19. These changes are analyzed with variables from social disorganization theory constructs using multinomial logistic regression. Results: The results indicate a city-wide decline in crime during the COVID-19 lockdown. However, at the local level, socially disorganized dissemination areas experience increases in certain crime types. Variables representing the constructs of social disorganization theory are generally able to predict these changes, suggesting the need to examine changes in crime at different geographic levels. Conclusions: COVID-19 has changed the patterns of crime in Saskatoon, but most often in theoretically expected ways. Local changes are critical to understand crime during a pandemic and are instructive for policing agencies as well as social service providers during such an exceptional event.