Uncertainty in the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and costs of HDPE pipe alternatives

High density polyethylene (HDPE) is a thermoplastic used in many engineering applications but one that imposes environmental burdens when produced and environmental costs at end-of-life (EOL). Replacing pristine HDPE with post-consumer recycled (PCR) HDPE or bio-based polymer (bio-HDPE) in long-lived goods could mitigate those impacts. We investigate cradle-to-gate and cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs of four alternative resins, pristine HDPE, pristine/PCR HDPE, bio-HDPE and nanoclay-pristine/PCR HDPE composite, and their use in 100-year drainage pipe, respectively. We construct stochastic LCA models that combine service life prediction from experiments with parametric and scenario uncertainty modeling using Monte Carlo simulation and non-parametric bootstrapping. Results differ significantly on a resin versus pipe product basis owing to the functional unit requirement for meeting pipe service life, if governed by crystallinity and fracture energy, properties that call for greater quantities of material in recycled and nanoclay composite HDPE compared to pristine HDPE. The nanocomposite pipe has varying GHG emissions compared to all alternatives due to high mass requirement if assuming crystallinity and fracture energy govern failure, but this predicted mass may be reduced given that the nanoclay can prolong fracture time, which would reduce GHG emissions and pipe production cost. Despite a large GHG reduction relative to pristine HDPE, the bio-HDPE resin has the highest material production cost; however, considering life cycle costs, the incremental difference among all alternatives is small over a range of discount rates, rendering the bio-HDPE pipe a promising solution for addressing climate change in long-lived thermoplastic assets.