Change in self-reported health: A signal for early intervention in a medicare population

Background: Health plans and risk-bearing provider organizations seek information sources to inform proactive interventions for patients at risk of adverse health events. Interventions should take into account the strong relationship between social context and health. This retrospective cohort study of a Medicare Advantage population examined whether a change in self-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL) signals a subsequent change in healthcare needs. Methods: A retrospective longitudinal analysis of administrative claims data was conducted for participants in a Medicare Advantage plan with prescription drug coverage (MAPD) who responded to 2 administrations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 4-item Healthy Days survey within 6-18 months during 2015-2018. Changes in HRQOL, as measured by the Healthy Days instrument, were compared with changes in utilization and costs, which were considered to be a reflection of change in healthcare needs. Results: A total of 48,841 individuals met inclusion criteria. Declining HRQOL was followed by increases in utilization and costs. An adjusted analysis showed that every additional unhealthy day reported one year after baseline was accompanied by an $8 increase in monthly healthcare costs in the subsequent six months for the average patient. Conclusions: Declining HRQOL signaled subsequent increases in healthcare needs and utilization.