Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

被引:321
作者
Bloom, Nicholas [1 ,2 ]
Jones, Charles, I [2 ,3 ]
Van Reenen, John [2 ,4 ]
Webb, Michael [1 ]
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[3] Stanford Univ, Grad Sch Business, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[4] MIT, Dept Econ, LSE, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
关键词
RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; PRODUCTIVITY; INNOVATION; MARKET; SPILLOVERS; FIRMS; LIFE; PROTECTION; ALLOCATION;
D O I
10.1257/aer.20180338
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Long-run growth in many models is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore's Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling of computer chip density is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. More generally, everywhere we look we find that ideas, and the exponential growth they imply, are getting harder to find.
引用
收藏
页码:1104 / 1144
页数:41
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