Systematic design and comparison of expanded carrier screening panels

Purpose: The recent growth in pan-ethnic expanded carrier screening (ECS) has raised questions about how such panels might be designed and evaluated systematically. Design principles for ECS panels might improve clinical detection of at-risk couples and facilitate objective discussions of panel choice. Methods: Guided by medical-society statements, we propose a method for the design of ECS panels that aims to maximize the aggregate and per-disease sensitivity and specificity across a range of Mendelian disorders considered serious by a systematic classification scheme. We evaluated this method retrospectively using results from 474,644 de-identified carrier screens. We then constructed several idealized panels to highlight strengths and limitations of different ECS methodologies. Results: Based on modeled fetal risks for "severe" and "profound" diseases, a commercially available ECS panel (Counsyl) is expected to detect 183 affected conceptuses per 100,000 US births. A screen's sensitivity is greatly impacted by two factors: (i) the methodology used (e.g., full-exon sequencing finds more affected conceptuses than targeted genotyping) and (ii) the detection rate of the screen for diseases with high prevalence and complex molecular genetics (e.g., fragile X syndrome). Conclusion: The described approaches enable principled, quantitative evaluation of which diseases and methodologies are appropriate for pan-ethnic expanded carrier screening.