Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century

被引:6
作者
Holube, Katharina M. [1 ,3 ]
Zolles, Tobias [1 ,2 ]
Born, Andreas [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bergen, Dept Earth Sci, Bergen, Norway
[2] Univ Bergen, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway
[3] Univ Hamburg, Meteorol Inst, Hamburg, Germany
关键词
ICE-SHEET; ENERGY-BALANCE; MODEL; CLIMATE; CMIP5; SENSITIVITY;
D O I
10.5194/tc-16-315-2022
中图分类号
P9 [自然地理学];
学科分类号
0705 ; 070501 ;
摘要
The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet is subject to considerable uncertainties that complicate predictions of sea level rise caused by climate change. We examine the SMB of the Greenland ice sheet in the 21st century with the Bergen Snow Simulator (BESSI) surface energy and mass balance model. To estimate the uncertainty of the SMB, we conduct simulations for four greenhouse gas emission scenarios using the output of a wide range of Earth system models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to force BESSI. In addition, the uncertainty of the SMB simulation is estimated by using 16 different parameter sets in our SMB model. The median SMB across ESMs and parameter sets, integrated over the ice sheet, decreases over time for every emission scenario. As expected, the decrease in SMB is stronger for higher greenhouse gas emissions. The regional distribution of the resulting SMB shows the most substantial SMB decrease in western Greenland for all ESMs, whereas the differences between the ESMs are most pronounced in the north and around the equilibrium line. Temperature and precipitation are the input variables of the snow model that have the largest influence on the SMB and the largest differences between ESMs. In our ensemble, the range of uncertainty in the SMB is greater than in previous studies that used fewer ESMs as forcing. An analysis of the different sources of uncertainty shows that the uncertainty caused by the different ESMs for a given scenario is larger than the uncertainty caused by the climate scenarios. In comparison, the uncertainty caused by the snow model parameters is negligible, leaving the uncertainty of the ESMs as the main reason for SMB uncertainty.
引用
收藏
页码:315 / 331
页数:17
相关论文
共 40 条
[1]  
Amante C., 2009, NOAA TECHNICAL MEMOR, P19, DOI 10.7289/V5C8276M
[2]   Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium [J].
Aschwanden, Andy ;
Fahnestock, Mark A. ;
Truffer, Martin ;
Brinkerhoff, Douglas J. ;
Hock, Regine ;
Khroulev, Constantine ;
Mottram, Ruth ;
Khan, S. Abbas .
SCIENCE ADVANCES, 2019, 5 (06)
[3]   An empirical evaluation of bias correction methods for palaeoclimate simulations [J].
Beyer, Robert ;
Krapp, Mario ;
Manica, Andrea .
CLIMATE OF THE PAST, 2020, 16 (04) :1493-1508
[4]   An efficient surface energy-mass balance model for snow and ice [J].
Born, Andreas ;
Imhof, Michael A. ;
Stocker, Thomas F. .
CRYOSPHERE, 2019, 13 (05) :1529-1546
[5]   A surface mass balance model for the Greenland ice sheet [J].
Bougamont, M ;
Bamber, JL .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-EARTH SURFACE, 2005, 110 (F4)
[6]   Sublimation on the Greenland ice sheet from automated weather station observations [J].
Box, JE ;
Steffen, K .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2001, 106 (D24) :33965-33981
[7]   From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate [J].
Davini, Paolo ;
D'Andrea, Fabio .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2020, 33 (23) :10021-10038
[8]   The Arctic Surface Climate in CMIP6: Status and Developments since CMIP5 [J].
Davy, Richard ;
Outten, Stephen .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2020, 33 (18) :8047-8068
[9]   The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system [J].
Dee, D. P. ;
Uppala, S. M. ;
Simmons, A. J. ;
Berrisford, P. ;
Poli, P. ;
Kobayashi, S. ;
Andrae, U. ;
Balmaseda, M. A. ;
Balsamo, G. ;
Bauer, P. ;
Bechtold, P. ;
Beljaars, A. C. M. ;
van de Berg, L. ;
Bidlot, J. ;
Bormann, N. ;
Delsol, C. ;
Dragani, R. ;
Fuentes, M. ;
Geer, A. J. ;
Haimberger, L. ;
Healy, S. B. ;
Hersbach, H. ;
Holm, E. V. ;
Isaksen, L. ;
Kallberg, P. ;
Koehler, M. ;
Matricardi, M. ;
McNally, A. P. ;
Monge-Sanz, B. M. ;
Morcrette, J. -J. ;
Park, B. -K. ;
Peubey, C. ;
de Rosnay, P. ;
Tavolato, C. ;
Thepaut, J. -N. ;
Vitart, F. .
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2011, 137 (656) :553-597
[10]   Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization [J].
Eyring, Veronika ;
Bony, Sandrine ;
Meehl, Gerald A. ;
Senior, Catherine A. ;
Stevens, Bjorn ;
Stouffer, Ronald J. ;
Taylor, Karl E. .
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 2016, 9 (05) :1937-1958