Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise

被引：220

作者：

Reimann, Lena ^{[1
]}

Vafeidis, Athanasios T. ^{[1
]}

Brown, Sally ^{[2
,3
]}

Hinkel, Jochen ^{[4
]}

Tol, Richard S. J. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Kiel, Dept Geog, Ludewig Meyn Str 14, D-24118 Kiel, Germany

[2] Univ Southampton, Fac Phys Sci, Univ Rd, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England

[3] Bournemouth Univ, Dept Life & Environm Sci, Fac Sci & Technol, Poole BH12 5BB, Dorset, England

[4] Global Climate Forum eV, GCF, Neue Promenade 6, D-10178 Berlin, Germany

[5] Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Falmer Campus, Brighton BN1 9SL, E Sussex, England

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2018年 / 9卷

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

FUTURE CLIMATE-CHANGE; CULTURAL-HERITAGE; VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT; ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITES; ADAPTATION; HAZARDS; CITIES; SCALE; TIDE; PROTECTION;

D O I：

10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.

引用

页数：11

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