Explaining the high number of infected people by dengue in Rio de Janeiro in 2008 using a susceptible-infective-recovered model

被引：11
作者：
Botari, Tiago [1 ]
Alves, S. G. [2 ]
Leonel, Edson D. [3 ]
机构：
[1] UNESP Univ Estadual Paulista, Dept Fis, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, SP, Brazil
[2] Univ Fed Vicosa, Dept Fis, BR-36570000 Vicosa, MG, Brazil
[3] UNESP Univ Estadual Paulista, Dept Estat Matemat Aplicada & Comp, BR-13506900 Rio Claro, SP, Brazil
来源：
PHYSICAL REVIEW E | 2011年 / 83卷 / 03期
基金：
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词：
FEVER;
D O I：
10.1103/PhysRevE.83.037101
中图分类号：
O35 [流体力学]; O53 [等离子体物理学];
学科分类号：
070204 ; 080103 ; 080704 ;
摘要：
An epidemiological model for dengue propagation using cellular automata is constructed. Dependence on temperature and rainfall index are taken into account. Numerical results fit pretty well with the registered cases of dengue for the city of Rio de Janeiro for the period from 2006 to 2008. In particular, our approach explains very well an abnormally high number of cases registered in 2008. A phase transition from endemic to epidemic regimes is discussed.
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页数：4
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