Prognostic Value of Exercise Capacity in Kidney Transplant Candidates

Background Exercise stress testing for cardiovascular assessment in kidney transplant candidates has been shown to be a feasible alternative to pharmacologic methods. Exercise stress testing allows the additional assessment of exercise capacity, which may have prognostic value for long-term cardiovascular outcomes in pre-transplant recipients. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of exercise capacity on long-term cardiovascular outcomes in kidney transplant candidates. Methods and Results We retrospectively evaluated exercise capacity in 898 consecutive kidney transplant candidates between 2013 and 2020 who underwent symptom-limited exercise stress echocardiography for pre-transplant cardiovascular assessment. Exercise capacity was measured by age- and sex-predicted metabolic equivalents (METs). The primary outcome was incident major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and stroke. Cox proportional hazard multivariable modeling was performed to define major adverse cardiovascular events predictors with transplantation treated as a time-varying covariate. A total of 429 patients (48%) achieved predicted METs. During follow-up, 93 (10%) developed major adverse cardiovascular events and 525 (58%) underwent transplantation. Achievement of predicted METs was independently associated with reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] 0.49; [95% CI 0.29-0.82], P=0.007), as was transplantation (HR, 0.52; [95% CI 0.30-0.91], P=0.02). Patients achieving predicted METs on pre-transplant exercise stress echocardiography had favorable outcomes that were independent (HR, 0.78; [95% CI 0.32-1.92], P=0.59) and of similar magnitude to subsequent transplantation (HR, 0.97; [95% CI 0.42-2.25], P=0.95). Conclusions Achievement of predicted METs on pre-transplant exercise stress echocardiography confers excellent prognosis independent of and of similar magnitude to subsequent kidney transplantation. Future studies should assess the benefit on exercise training in this population.