Phenology and plasticity can prevent adaptive clines in thermal tolerance across temperate mountains: The importance of the elevation-time axis

Critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) decrease with elevation, with greater change in CTmin, and the risk to suffer heat and cold stress increasing at the gradient ends. A central prediction is that populations will adapt to the prevailing climatic conditions. Yet, reliable support for such expectation is scant because of the complexity of integrating phenotypic, molecular divergence and organism exposure. We examined intraspecific variation of CTmax and CTmin, neutral variation for 11 microsatellite loci, and micro- and macro-temperatures in larvae from 11 populations of the Galician common frog (Rana parvipalmata) across an elevational gradient, to assess (1) the existence of local adaptation through a P-ST-F-ST comparison, (2) the acclimation scope in both thermal limits, and (3) the vulnerability to suffer acute heat and cold thermal stress, measured at both macro- and microclimatic scales. Our study revealed significant microgeographic variation in CTmax and CTmin, and unexpected elevation gradients in pond temperatures. However, variation in CTmax and CTmin could not be attributed to selection because critical thermal limits were not correlated to elevation or temperatures. Differences in breeding phenology among populations resulted in exposure to higher and more variable temperatures at mid and high elevations. Accordingly, mid- and high-elevation populations had higher CTmax and CTmin plasticities than lowland populations, but not more extreme CTmax and CTmin. Thus, our results support the prediction that plasticity and phenological shifts may hinder local adaptation, promoting thermal niche conservatism. This may simply be a consequence of a coupled variation of reproductive timing with elevation (the "elevation-time axis" for temperature variation). Mid and high mountain populations of R. parvipalmata are more vulnerable to heat and cool impacts than lowland populations during the aquatic phase. All of this contradicts some of the existing predictions on adaptive thermal clines and vulnerability to climate change in elevational gradients.