Alzheimer's Disease Biomarkers and Future Decline in Cognitive Normal Older Adults

Background: Identifying older adults at risk of cognitive decline represents a challenge as Alzheimer's disease (AD) modifying therapies move toward preclinical stages. Objective: To investigate the relationship between AD biomarkers and subsequent change in cognition in a cohort of cognitively intact older adults. Methods: 84 cognitively normal subjects (mean age 72.0 years, 59% women) were recruited through the Massachusetts Alzheimer's Disease Research Center and the Harvard Aging Brain Study and followed over 3 years. Measurements of amyloid-beta 1-42 (A beta(42)), total Tau (t-Tau), and Tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (p-Tau181) in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) at study entry were available in all cases. Baseline brain MRI, FDG-PET, and PiB-PET data were available in the majority of participants. Relationship between baseline AD biomarkers and longitudinal change in cognition was assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression and linear mixed models. Results: 14% participants increased their global Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) score from 0 to 0.5 during follow-up. A CDR score increase was associated with higher baseline CSF t-Tau and p-Tau181, higher global cortical PiB retention, and lower hippocampal volume. The combination of high CSF t-Tau and low A beta(42) or low hippocampal volume was more strongly related to cognitive outcome than each single biomarker. Higher CSF t-Tau was the only biomarker associated with subsequent decline in MMSE score. Conclusions: Baseline CSF t-Tau and p-Tau181, in vivo amyloid load, and hippocampal volume were all independently associated with future decline in cognition. The discriminatory ability of these biomarkers to predict risk of cognitive decline, however, was only modest.