Hyperlactataemia as a predictor of adverse outcomes post-cardiac surgery in neonates with congenital heart disease

Objective: To evaluate the discriminative ability of hyperlactataemia for early morbidity and mortality in neonates with CHD following cardiac surgery. Methods: Retrospective, observational study of neonates who underwent cardiac surgery on cardiopulmonary bypass at a tertiary care children's hospital from June 2015 to June 2019. The primary predictor was lactate. The primary composite outcome was defined as >= 1 of the following: cardiac arrest or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation within 72 hours or 30-day mortality post-operatively. The secondary outcome was the presence of major residual lesions, according to the Technical Performance Score. Results: Of 432 neonates, 28 (6.5%) sustained the composite outcome. On univariate analysis, peak lactate within 48 hours, increase in lactate from ICU admission through 12 hours, and single ventricle physiology were significantly associated with the composite outcome. The peak lactate occurred at a median of 2.9 hours (interquartile range: 1, 35) before the event. Through multi-variable analysis, a multi-variable risk algorithm was created. Predicted probabilities demonstrated an increasing risk based on single ventricle status and delta lactate, ranging from 1.8% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.9) to 52.4% (95% CI: 32.4, 71.7). The model had good discriminative ability for the composite outcome on receiver operating characteristic analysis (area under the curve = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.89). Moreover, a peak lactate of 7.3 mmol/l or greater was significantly associated with the presence of a major residual lesion (odds ratios: 5.16, 95% CI: 3.01, 8.87). Conclusions: We present a simple, two-variable model, including delta lactate in the immediate post-operative period and single ventricle status, to prognosticate the risk of early morbidity and mortality in neonates undergoing cardiac surgery for potential intervention.