Future water levels of the Great Lakes under 1.5 °C to 3 °C warmer climates

With the many different interests that are connected to the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes, the future of these water levels are of great concern to many people, businesses, and institutions. Projected future lake levels were calculated using data from the North American component of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment. The final lake level results are presented in relation to a 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C, and 3.0 degrees C change in global mean temperature. The results show that the range of possible values grows as the climate changes, with more extreme values for the lake levels becoming possible with greater changes in the global mean temperature. This increase in the range on both the high and low end may be a more important consideration than any general increase in the average water level for those living around the lakes Because the most severe impacts on the interests around the lake are usually associated with these extreme high or low levels. A greater understanding that the extremes in water levels observed in the past may be exceeded under a changing climate will help in the planning of future developments and activities within the Great Lakes basin with a forward looking coastal risk assessment and help communites build resilience to future extremes. Crown Copyright (c) 2022 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of International Association for Great Lakes Research. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).