The Risk Evaluation of the Engineering Change Based on the Set Pair Analysis Technology

Engineering change is an important part of the construction project contract management and a critical factor of the three controls in construction project. As there are many engineering changes at the implementation stage of the project, many construction projects occur "final accounts over budget; budget over budgetary estimate; budgetary estimate over estimate" and construction period delay. Engineering change risk has the three characteristics of random uncertainty, fuzzy uncertainty, and grey uncertainty. Based on the Set Pair Analysis theory (SPA), risk systems with multiple uncertainties are carried out by dialectical and quantitative analysis. Evaluating engineering change risk from both sides and global perspective, we find out the critical factor of engineering change. Taking a real estate development project for example, using SPA model into risk analysis, the paper reveals that the key factor of engineering change for the project is designer quality, and provides theoretical basis for engineering change management.