The ghost vampire: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of the largest bat in the Americas

The phantom vampire, Vampyrum spectrum (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae), is the largest South American flying mammal classified as threatened by the IUCN. Despite the broad distribution of this species across South America, its low population density and the spatial isolation of its populations may compromise its response to the expected climate change. Using species distribution models, we increased our knowledge of the historical, current, and future spatial distribution patterns of this species. Considering past [last glacial maximum (LGM) and middle Holocene], current, and future climatic scenarios for the South American extent, we used MaxEnt, random forest (RF), and support vector machine methods to model the distribution of V. spectrum over time and identify/quantify climatically stable areas. We observed that our models achieved good performances for all algorithms, especially for RF. The spatial distribution patterns obtained from the models made it possible to identify areas where V. spectrum was more stable over time. From the LGM to the current and future scenarios, the overall balance is the loss of areas in the species distribution range. By using multitemporal analyses, we may be able to identify repeated historical patterns where some conservation areas may be effective in the future if the spatial patterns of distribution are similar to past distributions. Our work contributes to increasing the knowledge of the spatial distribution of the species, providing support for practical management and conservation plans while also showing the importance of predicting historical spatial patterns and considering their spatial trends.