This work investigates extreme weather events such as the onset of medicanes, which can cause severe socioeconomic impacts, along with their predictability. In order to accurately forecast such events, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its state-of-the-art data assimilation modeling framework (WRFDA) were set up to produce high-resolution forecasts for the case study of Medicane Ianos, which affected Greece between 17 and 19 September 2020. Information from weather stations and the satellite precipitation product IMERG was blended with the background model information from the Global Forecast System (GFS) using the 4D variational data assimilation (4D-Var) technique. New fields in an 18 km spatial resolution domain covering Europe were generated and utilized as improved initial conditions for the forecast model. Forecasts were issued based on these improved initial conditions at two nested domains of 6 km and 2 km spatial resolution, with the 2 km domain enclosing Greece. Denial experiments, where no observational data were assimilated in the initial boundary conditions, showed that the temperature fields benefited throughout the forecasting horizon from the assimilation (ranging from a 5 to 10% reduction in the average MAE values), while neutral to slightly positive (ranging from a 0.4 to 2% reduction in the average MAE values) improvement was found for wind, although not throughout the forecast horizon. The increase in spatial resolution did not significantly reduce the forecast error, but was kept at the same small order of magnitude. A tendency of the model to overpredict precipitation regardless of assimilation was observed. The assimilation of the IMERG data improved the precipitation forecasting ability up to the 18th hour of forecast. When compared to assimilation experiments that excluded IMERG data, the assimilation of IMERG data produced a better representation of the spatial distribution of the precipitation fields.
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Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USAGeorgia Inst Technol, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA
Zhang, Jiaying
Lin, Liao-Fan
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NOAA OAR Global Syst Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
Colorado State Univ, Cooperat Inst Res Atmosphere, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USAGeorgia Inst Technol, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA
Lin, Liao-Fan
Bras, Rafael L.
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Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USAGeorgia Inst Technol, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA
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Nanjing Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Pollut Control & Resource Reuse, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Key Lab Digital Earth Sci, Beijing 100094, Peoples R ChinaNanjing Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Pollut Control & Resource Reuse, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Yi, Lu
Zhang, Wanchang
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Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Key Lab Digital Earth Sci, Beijing 100094, Peoples R ChinaNanjing Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Pollut Control & Resource Reuse, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Zhang, Wanchang
Wang, Kai
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Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R ChinaNanjing Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Pollut Control & Resource Reuse, Nanjing 210093, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
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Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USANanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Wang, Haoliang
Liu, Yubao
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Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
China Elect Power Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaNanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
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Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USANanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Liu, Yuewei
Xu, Mei
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Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USANanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Xu, Mei
Shen, Si
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Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USANanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Shen, Si
Jiang, Yin
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Shenzhen Municipal, Meteorol Bur, Shenzhen, Peoples R ChinaNanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Jiang, Yin
Yang, Honglong
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Shenzhen Municipal, Meteorol Bur, Shenzhen, Peoples R ChinaNanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Yang, Honglong
Feng, Shuanglei
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China Elect Power Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaNanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China