Prostate cancer-specific survival in men treated with hormonal therapy after failure of radical prostatectomy

Objectives: We hypothesized that prostate cancer-specific survival (PCaSS) could be accurately predicted in men in whom radical prostatectomy (RP) failed and who received hormonal therapy (HT) after RP failure. Methods: Between 1954 and 1994, 752 consecutive patients underwent RP without neoadjuvant therapy. Of those, 114 patients (15.2%) received HT at RP failure and represent the focus of this analysis. Cox regression models and a nomogram targeted PCaSS. The main predictor was timing of HT initiation: at prostate -specific antigen (PSA) versus local versus distant recurrence. Covariates included age at HT, pathologic T stage, surgical margin status and Gleason sum at RP, use of adjuvant or salvage radiation, and time from RP to HT. Results: Mean and median follow-up periods were 5.1 and 3.9 yr; 70 deaths were recorded, of which 45 (39.8%) were due to PCa. At 1, 5, 10, and 15 yr, the estimates of PCaSS were, respectively, 97.1%, 68.3%,49.3%, and 30.2% (median, 9.8 yr). Younger men and those with HT initiated at the time of distant recurrence had lower PCaSS. A nomogram predicting PCaSS at 2, 3, 4, and 5 yr after RP was developed and demonstrated 66% accuracy after 200-bootstrap internal validation. Conclusion: Despite RP failure, half the patients can expect to survive for 10 yr. The nomogram can help in discriminating between those with better versus worse PCaSS, better than relying on most educated guesses. (C) 2006 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.